Development of a Statistical Model for Predicting the Oil Production Rate after Fracking by Geological and Technological Indicators

Author details
  • Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Perm, Russian Federation

Abstract

An increase in the productivity of wells at operational facilities is achieved through the use of various geological and technical measures. Hydraulic fracturing (HF) in production and injection wells is one of the effective methods for increasing oil recovery, involving low-permeability zones and interlayers in the development, a mechanism for a wider coverage of productive zones by waterflooding, which makes it possible to convert part of off-balance reserves into commercial ones. According to experts, the use of hydraulic fracturing can increase the oil and gas recovery factor by 10-15%. The Perm Territory belongs to the old oil-producing region of the Russian Federation. To date, more than 60% of the remaining recoverable oil reserves of the fields of the Perm region are concentrated in carbonate deposits. Most of the fields are currently in the late stages of development. These fields, as a rule, are characterized by the presence of undrained zones with residual reserves and low well flow rates. Most of the remaining reserves of the fields are concentrated in low-permeability reservoirs with a high degree of heterogeneity and difficult fluid filtration. Unfortunately, the results obtained in practice do not always correspond to preliminary calculations and do not reach the planned oil production rates. In connection with the above, the problem arises of predicting the effectiveness of hydraulic fracturing operations using mathematical methods of analysis. The effectiveness of hydraulic fracturing is undoubtedly influenced by both geological and technological parameters. In this paper, for the carbonate Kashirsky (K) and Podolsky (Pd) productive deposits of one of the oil fields in the Perm region, using step-by-step regression analysis based on geological and technological parameters, a forecast of the initial oil production rate after hydraulic fracturing was made. Good agreement between model and experimental results is obtained.

Keywords

hydraulic fracturingoil recoveryoil flow ratetechnological parameterscarbonate reservoirsregression analysis.

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Article information

Published
30 August 2024
Issue date
30 August 2024
Issue
Vol. 24, No. 3 (2024)
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